In recent days, a weather pattern influenced by the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) was observed, resulting in positive indices of this oscillation. This caused a reduction in rainfall in the South Region and in the center-south of Brazil.
However, forecasts point to a negative trend for the AAO next week, attributed to the advance of a cold front and a mass of polar air through the center-south of the country, and there is a possibility that the cold will reach the region North.
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This trend may cause the cold front to encounter obstacles as it advances through Brazilian territory. Consequently, it is expected that this configuration of polar air mass will advance through the south and west of the country, with a less expressive performance in the southeast.
This situation can be partially explained by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is currently in phase 4. This phase favors convective activity in the South, prolonging the presence of the frontal system over the region and hindering a more significant advance of the polar air mass.
Understanding the interactions between different weather systems is crucial to understanding current conditions and predicting climate.
Cold forecast for the month of June
The performance of a polar air mass is expected to be remarkably intense, possibly the strongest this year so far.
This intensity can be accentuated by the context of El Niño, which generally reduces the frequency and intensity of cold events, resulting in warmer-than-normal winters and springs.
Temperature variations underline the more intense action of the polar air mass, resulting in more intense cold in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and in the western region of the other states.
Due to continental characteristics and the influence of the MJO oscillation, the temperature drop may not be as pronounced in the Southeast. However, cold air is expected to reach the west of the Northern Region after the 14th.
The indications suggest that the cold peak could occur around the 19th, which could result in widespread frost in the three states of the Southern Region, mainly affecting Rio Grande do Sul.
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