Kashmir represents one of the most important conflicts of our time involving ethnic differences and disputes over the division of national borders. Until 1947, in the period before the independence of India and the fragmentation of the Indian territory, its 220 thousand km2 (approximately the area of the Brazilian state of Piauí) were under the domain of Maharaja Hari Singh Bahadur, being composed of the territories of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Aksai Chin, Gilgit, and Baltisan Partition. However, with the transformations that took place after World War II, this territory was divided between India, Pakistan and China.
India gained control of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Pakistan took control of Gilgit, Baltisan, and western Kashmir. Currently, the Indian state formed by Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh is officially called Jammu and Kashmir, equivalent to 141,338 km2 of the total area. Pakistan has 85,846 km2 and China has a relatively smaller area, with 37,555 km2. The term Kashmir is generally used to refer to the entire region, containing all three areas.
After independence, India and Pakistan went to war on three occasions. During the first Indo-Pakistani War (1947), Pakistan was successful in conquering large areas of the former kingdom of Kashmir, but these were the least desirable and least populated regions. The Chinese, who had long contested their territorial limits with India, took control of Aksai Chin in 1950. The government of India tried but failed to regain this territory in 1962, when a border conflict broke out between the two countries. In the second and third Indo-Pakistani Wars (1965 and 1971), India took over the most populated places and the most productive areas in Kashmir that were controlled by Pakistan. The territorial limits were defined in 1972, with the execution of the Simla Agreement, with the endorsement of UN, when the Line of Control was delimited, replacing the ceasefire line created in 1948.
Kashmir is of vital importance for sovereignty over water resources, encompassing the location of the sources of the Ganges and Indus rivers, the main rivers of India and Pakistan, respectively. The Kashmir Valley, shaped by the Jhelum River, is approximately 85 kilometers long by 40 kilometers wide and is located at an altitude of over 1500 meters. The valley contains Srinagar, the capital of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, a city of over 500,000 inhabitants. The state is separated from the Jammu area by a mountain range called Panjal Pir. Jammu is the main city in the southern half of the state. Since much of Kashmir is located in the Himalayan mountains, only about 20% of the land can be cultivated, but farmers represent 80% of the population. Most soils are quite dry for most of the year, but the land in the river valleys has been able to produce a wide variety of trees and flowers, with large crops of rice, fruits and vegetables.
According to the latest census data, the Pakistani part of Kashmir has a population of 4.5 million, while Indian Kashmir has about 12.5 million inhabitants. In the portion located in India, Muslims make up 95% of the population, distributed at 48% in the Ladakh region and almost 40% in Jammu. Hindu and Sikh ethnic groups are concentrated in Jammu, Christians are dispersed throughout the state and Buddhists are mainly located in the sparsely populated areas of Ladakh. For this reason, the Muslim population wants to integrate with Pakistan, freeing themselves from the control of the Indian government, many Pakistanis would like to see this area become part of Pakistan.
Since 1989, the Indian area of Kashmir has suffered from terrorist attacks by Muslim militants and oppressive security policies by the Indian army. Pakistani Islamic militants have sometimes crossed the border to fight Indian control in the region. An estimated 600,000 Indian soldiers are operating in the Kashmir region to quell the insurgencies. Pakistan's government claims the rebels are native to Kashmir and are forced into rebellion by India's repressive policies and the corruption of the Indian system. Kashmir's unstable economy, with high levels of unemployment, contributes to making the region even more vulnerable to social crises. Pakistanis also accuse the Indian army of resorting to torture, rape and murder in order to suppress the right of the people of Kashmir to determine their own political future, as through a plebiscite.
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In response, the government of India claims that Pakistan is the source of the problem for having created camps for Terrorist training in the early 1980s to help Afghans resist the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan. He also claims that arms trafficking is taking place from Pakistani Kashmir towards India, which would help extremist groups that carry out attacks in the region. The purpose of these acts is to alarm Hindus living in Kashmir and try to radicalize the Muslim population to convince them that the region should become part of Pakistan. The government of India also accuses the Chinese of offering support in training Pakistani soldiers, as it is very common for Chinese soldiers to practice war exercises on the border between the three countries.
Today, Pakistan still seems determined to gain control of the Indian state of Kashmir. The country uses as its main argument the issue that the majority of Kashmir's population is Muslim and that it is their wish to participate in Pakistan, but they are prevented from doing so by an Indian government oppressor. India seems equally determined to retain control of the state of Kashmir. After 60 years of dispute, both sides still say they support the idea of holding a referendum to determine the will of the people of Kashmir. But no referendum was held during this entire period, and neither India nor Pakistan seems willing or able to maintain such a commitment to make any concessions.
The threat of war has always seemed imminent, as both countries are highly militarized. India conducted five underground nuclear tests in the desert of Rajasthan province, western India, on May 11-13, 1998. Pakistan responded with its own series of nuclear tests on May 28 and 30 of that same year. By that time, countries had tested missile systems that could carry nuclear bombs. The tests were very popular in India and Pakistan, and proponents of the tests stressed that countries were acting defensively and that they had legitimate security fears. India has planes and missiles capable of reaching every major city in Pakistan, which does not yet have the same capacity. The two countries are not signatories of the NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty) in force since 1970.
With the development of these tests, the heads of state of different nations fear that nuclear weapons in the hands of the leaders of the two countries could considerably increase the possibility of a war nuclear. In response to this fear, the United States vigorously denounced the Indian tests when they occurred and urged Pakistanis not to respond. When the Pakistanis responded, the
United States immediately imposed economic sanctions on both countries, Japan had the same reaction.
After the transformations in international geopolitics due to the attacks of September 11, 2001, the Americans relaxed their politics in the region, mainly because they needed Pakistani support in the fight against Al Qaeda and in the search for terrorist leader Osama bin Laden
Other major nations, such as China, France and Russia, condemned the tests, but they refused to impose sanctions. It is clear that the West does not want the emergence of new nuclear powers, but analyzing it with a critical eye, the tests were much more a show of force, that is, a country capable of developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles cannot be invaded and dominated easily.
*Image credit: Asianet-Pakistan and Shutterstock.com
Julio César Lázaro da Silva
Brazil School Collaborator
Graduated in Geography from Universidade Estadual Paulista - UNESP
Master in Human Geography from Universidade Estadual Paulista - UNESP
