A group of researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) used a computer model in 1972 to discover what the future of humanity would be. The result was that a global collapse would happen in the 21st century. Given a new analysis, the predictions made in this report appear to be correct.
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The report was carried out after MIT received a commission from the Club of Rome, made up of scientists, politicians, international business leaders and academics. The report was called “The Limits to Growth”, using the computational model known as World3.
The report's conclusion was that, if unbridled economic growth did not consider the environment, the “business as usual” scenario would generate a global collapse in the 21st century. Even though it does not mean the end of humanity, there would be a stagnation in industrial growth, a loss of well-being and a lack of food.
New report shows four scenarios
The new research, published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology, analyzed empirical data from recent decades, comparing it with predictions from the 1972 report. The analysis was carried out by the company KPMG and led by Gaya Herrington, director of the company. Given this, four scenarios were evaluated.
The first of these is “business as usual”, where natural resources run out and trigger a global collapse later this century. The second of “business as usual” estimates a collapse triggered by pollution, environmental devastation and/or climate change.
In the third scenario, the population lives in a “stabilized world”, which achieved stability at the end of the 21st century and maintained living standards. In the fourth scenario, that of “comprehensive technology”, humanity emerged from environmental restrictions using technological development.
Is it possible to reach a stabilized world?
Herrington's survey shows that the report produced 50 years ago was correct and that humanity appears to be heading towards collapse. However, the director states that it is still possible to reach a “stabilized world”, as long as drastic changes are made.
“This is the message that it is not too late for humanity to change course and alter the trajectory of future data points,” Gaya Herrington said in a LinkedIn post.
