Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued an alert this month indicating that the El Niño phenomenon in 2023 could become the worst on record and called it "Super El Niño“. O El Niño causes changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affect the climate on a global scale, according to the explanation of the international agency.
During the weather phenomenon, drier weather and considerably higher than normal temperatures are predicted. Strong trade winds, which are constant, wet gusts, occur from east to southeast along the equator.
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Those winds drive ocean currents from the eastern Pacific to bring deeper water to the surface, keeping it essentially cold, according to forecasts.
According to experts, an increase of approximately 3°C in the temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected during the month of October.
Later, in November, the forecast is for an increase of 3.2°C in this region. These projections indicate a significant warming of the Pacific Ocean waters during these months.
How will the phenomenon occur in Brazil?
The influence of the tropical sun causes waters in the western equatorial Pacific to warm more efficiently, affecting the South American region, including Brazil.
Under normal conditions, the eastern tropical Pacific is significantly cooler, with a temperature difference of about 8°C to 10°C compared to the western tropical Pacific.
While areas in the North and Northeast have surface ocean temperatures between 28°C and 30°C, the Pacific Ocean in South America remains around 20°C. This thermal discrepancy has relevant impacts on the climatic conditions of the region.
In Brazil, the Super El Niño phenomenon can trigger extreme weather conditions such as droughts, heavy rains and other adverse weather events across the country.
It is expected that the South and Midwest regions of Brazil will receive rains above average and show an increase in temperatures. These climate changes can have significant impacts on weather conditions and the environment in general.
For the Southeast region, the forecast indicates an increase in temperatures, without major changes in the characteristics of the season.
In the North and Northeast, a significant reduction in rainfall is expected, resulting in severe droughts and increasing the risk of forest fires.
This disparity in climatic conditions can have considerable impacts in these regions, affecting water availability, agriculture and public health.
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