Africa currently remains one of the continents most ravaged by conflict, this goes back to a colonial past where inequalities and violence were directly employed by colonizers Europeans. This crisis is just one among many that this continent is currently facing.
The Republic of Kenya, a country in East Africa, bordered on the north by Sudan and Ethiopia, on the east by Somalia and the Indian Ocean, south by Tanzania and west by Uganda, after the December 27 presidential election is totally destabilized on the verge of a collapse.
The story
The conflicts in the African region and in Kenya in particular are not recent to explain it, we can start our analysis in the years of 1963, with independence after a colonial period. After its independence, it constituted a republic and became a member of the Commonwelth in 1964, under the presidency of the charismatic Kenyatta (KANU), who was re-elected in 1969 and 1974. Kenyatta's government was moderate, pro-Western and progressive, characteristic of the Kanu Party. Until the late 1960s, Kenya was, in effect, a one-party state. A large number of foreign investors settled in the country; tourism expanded and became the most important source of foreign exchange. After Kenyatta's death in 1978, Daniel Arap Moi, the only candidate for the presidency in the following year's elections, came to power. Arap Moi maintained the same political orientation as his predecessor. Opposition to the president grew, culminating in a bloody coup attempt in 1982. Many leaders were arrested. In the same year, the National Assembly officially declared mono-partisanship in the country. There followed a period of censorship and political persecution of opponents of the regime, led by the Kenya African National Union (KANU) party. The 1983 elections witnessed a return to relative stability, still under the presidency of Arap Moi, but the regime proved increasingly corrupt and autocratic. In 1988 Moi was appointed to serve a third term. Two years later, an alliance between intellectuals, lawyers and the clergy began to put pressure on the government to legalize opposition parties. Some of the alliance members were arrested, others murdered.
In December 1991, because of pressure from the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy, supported by Western alliances, Moi reluctantly agreed to undertake political reforms, including the creation of a political system multiparty. The tense situation continued throughout 1992, with demonstrations, riots and strikes. Several new political parties were registered, some of which ran in the first free presidential elections in December of the same year. Arap Moi won the elections and assumed his fourth term, although he was accused of having rigged the results. Parliament was closed despite protests from the opposition. In 1993, the government continued to restrict opposition activity and was accused of inciting ethnic violence in an attempt to discredit the pluralist political regime. The entry of around 500,000 refugees from Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan has increased the problems for the Kenyan government.
During the early 1990s, tribal warfare killed thousands and displaced tens of thousands. US support kept in power from 1978 to 2002 the regime of Daniel Arap Moi and his KANU party, which was pro-Western during the Cold War. Although a clause in the Kenyan constitution banning opposition parties was repealed in the 1990s (with the help of Smith Hempstone), Moi remained in power. to serve a fourth term after the first multi-party elections in 1997 due to ethnic divisions (which KANU propaganda helped to foment) in opposition. Furthermore, the 1997 elections were also marred by violence and fraud.
President Mwai Kibaki was elected in 2002 with a promise of change, ending 40 years of single-party rule, the Kanu, in government. Kibaki backed by the NARC coalition - became the first opposition presidential candidate to win an election in the country since independence. His coalition has held together thanks to promises of constitutional reforms and pledges of that it would nominate representatives from all of Kenya's main ethnic groups to seats important. The 2002 elections were widely praised, after earlier polls marred by allegations of irregularities and ethnic violence. Kenya's president at the time, Daniel Arap Moi, agreed to step down from power after 24 years of rule. The candidate supported by the president also accepted defeat.
But Kibaki's failure to deliver on these promises after the election caused several hotbeds, including the LDP's departure from the coalition. In addition, important voices from KANU - and in particular Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country's first president, Jomo Kenyatta - have been gaining new popularity. "Yote yawezekana bila Kibaki" (Everything is possible without Kibaki) is the slogan of this discontent.
2007 Why is this election causing so much instability?
Currently, the source of instability in Kenya was caused after suspicions of fraud were raised by opposition candidate Raila Odinga against the current re-elected president Mwai Kibaki.
European Union observers criticized the election and said that some of the results released in the capital, Nairobi, were different from those obtained in the electoral districts. In some regions, the number of votes outweighed the number of registered voters reaching an incredible 115%.
There are some factors such as the ethnic issue, the large group of refugees from other countries, corruption internal security in its institutions and the lack of control over internal security would explain the current instability of the Kenya. We will analyze factor by factor to try to elucidate a little more the wave of violence that devastates this country.
We will start with the ethnic issue, currently the source of the main conflicts not only in the African continent, but in the world. In Kenya, politics has always been heavily influenced by ethnicity.
The 36 million Kenyans are divided into more than 40 distinct ethnic groups. According to government statistics, the main groups are: Kikuyu (22% of the population), Luhya (14%), Luo (13%), Kalenjin (12%) and Kamba (11%). Members of the Odinga Luo ethnic group, concentrated mainly in the west of the country and the slums of Nairobi, voted in their majority for "their" candidate.
Likewise, most Kikuyus, who mainly live in central Kenya, voted for Kibaki. Corruption is still common in Kenya, leading many to believe that having a relative in government can bring direct benefits, such as a job in the public service.
Ethnic tensions between Luos and Kikuyus are high and clashes are inevitable, as are the massacres that according to the red cross and international amnesty is one of the main causes of deaths in africa behind only AIDS and malnutrition.
In Nairobi's overcrowded slums, residents are forced to live with violent gangs. Sanitary conditions are precarious. There are no sewers, and the toilets are replaced with plastic bags, then thrown out the window.
These are some of the people who hoped that Odinga would bring change to the country. These people say Kibaki has failed to keep his promise to end corruption, a problem that has held back Kenya's development for years.
regional loss
The wave of violence affected the flow of coffee and tea production in the country, which had their international auctions temporarily canceled. The Nairobi stock exchange was closed and companies canceled tour packages, advising their customers to look elsewhere. The center of the Kenyan capital, which concentrates economic activities, remained closed or with restricted access for the last few days. Blockades by the police, who were trying to prevent demonstrations, fear of vandalism or problems with public transport, led shops and businesses to close their doors.
According to trade associations, the closure of stores has caused Kenya to lose about US$31 million a day in taxes. The country's stalemate over the violence has shown how much East Africa is dependent on Kenya. If internally, the closure of roads made the flow and distribution of products difficult - which, along with the destruction of commercial establishments, meant that residents had to buy food at higher prices, the crisis was felt by consumers of neighboring countries.
Uganda and Rwanda, landlocked countries that depend largely on the Kenyan port of Mombasa, have had to take steps to ration fuel.
Trucks with food going to Kampala, Uganda's capital, were idle for days in Kenya. In Rwanda, the government even announced that it was negotiating with Tanzania to ship fuel from the east coast to its territory. In Burundi, the lack of fuel even threatened the departure of planes from the international airport in Bujumbura.
The Danger of Proliferation of Conflict
Odinga also has the option of filing a legal appeal against the election results. But as Kibaki was sworn in immediately after the official result was announced, there is little chance that this alternative would bring results for the defeated candidate.
The location of Kenya mentioned above was not merely an illustration, but a way of warning how serious this conflict is. The Republic of Kenya is located very close to an area called the Horn of Africa which is part of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan, currently the region with the highest intensity of conflict on the continent. On the horn of Africa we have conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, Somalia and the repression of Somaliland separatist movements and the most visible case on the international scene regarding Africa today is the massacre in Darfur located in the Sudan.
Africa remains the cradle of the bloodiest conflicts due to intolerance and the erroneous division of colonial powers in the past in which they defined borders and possessions without taking into account ethnic groups, cultures etc. But with a square and a pencil being blamed for most of the crises that have existed and still exist.
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*Image credits: Aleksandar Todorovic / Shutterstock
Per Alexandre Milan
Columnist Brazil School
Source: Brazil School - https://brasilescola.uol.com.br/geografia/a-crise-no-quenia.htm