Growing risk: two large Brazilian cities could end up submerged

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The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a phenomenon associated with global warming, is putting two coastal cities in Brazil at risk, according to a recent study conducted by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in collaboration with the agency Climate Impact Lab.

Climate projections and estimates of sea level rise suggest that if emissions continue unchecked, by the At the end of the 21st century, one of the cities could have 7.57% of its territory submerged, while the other could face the submersion of 7,35%.

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This worrying perspective highlights the direct impacts of climate change on coastal areas, warning of the urgency of effective measures to control emissions and adaptation.

Brazilian cities that will be submerged

Obtaining data and projection models for the study was carried out using information from satellites and tide gauges.

These sources were fundamental in supporting the conclusions of the study developed by UNDP, using as a reference the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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The study contains three different gas emission scenarios – low, significant and high – providing a comprehensive analysis of possible impacts.

Notably, in the current scenario, characterized by intermediate-level emissions, Santos and Rio de Janeiro are projected to face sea level rise above the global average.

According to projections, by 2050, Santos could have 2.74% of its territory submerged, while Rio de Janeiro could face a submersion of 2.07%.

Experts emphasize that the decisions and strategies outlined during the Climate Conference, COP-28, scheduled to take place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, should be strongly guided by this data worrying.

The imminent risk of sea level rise not only threatens densely populated coastal areas, but also poses a tangible danger to an estimated 73 million people worldwide by the end of the 21st century.

The study highlights that reducing emissions is a crucial measure to mitigate these risks, providing vital time to prepare and mitigate inevitable impacts.

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