Asteroid Bennu: a real risk or an exaggerated threat?

There are just a few days left until the OSIRIS-REx probe from NASA complete its historic mission, bringing with it precious samples from the asteroid Bennu.

However, an intriguing fact casts shadows of uncertainty over the future: September 24, 2182 is marked as the most likely for a possible collision between Bennu and Earth, according to the company itself NASA. But how real is this threat?

Analyzing the chances of collision

Bennu was chosen as the target for the OSIRIS-REx mission because of its excellent radar information and telescope observations, which made the mission safer.

However, this asteroid is considered one of the most likely to hit Earth and NASA is committed to better understanding its behavior and potential risk.

(Image: NASA/reproduction)

Previous estimates suggested a collision could occur sometime between 2175 and 2199, with a calculated risk of 1 in 2,700. This would represent an impact with the force of 24 atomic bombs, like the one that devastated Hiroshima in 1945.

After two years of detailed observation, NASA refined its calculations. Unfortunately, the chances of impact have changed slightly and are now estimated at around 1 in 1,750 for the year 2300.

However, the most likely date for impact is still September 24, 2182, with a probability of approximately 0.037%. It seems small, but it is far from impossible.

Managing space risks

NASA is actively involved in tracking asteroids that may pose risks to Earth. Earth. Using the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Late Warning System (ATLAS), an array of four telescopes, the agency monitors the locations and orbits of about 28,000 asteroids.

According to NASA criteria, any space object that is within 193 million kilometers of Earth is classified as a “near-Earth object” (NEO).

Those that are more than 140 meters in diameter and come closer than 7.5 million kilometers are considered “potentially dangerous”.

Fortunately, based on estimates and known trajectories, NASA claims that Earth will not face any danger from an apocalyptic asteroid collision for at least the next 100 years.

Therefore, although concerns about the asteroid Bennu and its possible collision with Earth are legitimate, we can rest assured. At least for now.

The OSIRIS-REx mission provided valuable data that will help us better understand this asteroid and manage possible space risks in the future.

As the OSIRIS-REx probe prepares to return samples from Bennu, scientists continue to monitor the space for possible threats, thus ensuring our safety against impact potential of asteroids.