Based on a readjustment that took place in May of this year, which raised the minimum wage for R$ 1,320, the Lula government (PT) presented a Bill (PL) to the National Congress that outlines an annual valuation policy from 2024 onwards.
Although the PL is still under analysis in the Chamber of Deputies, the expectation is that it will be submitted to a vote soon.
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Calculation of the new minimum wage
The proposed method for calculating annual minimum wage adjustments is a weighted equation. If the PL is approved, the increase will be determined by the inflation measured by the INPC of the previous year.
In addition, the consolidated growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of two previous years.
An exceptional scenario would occur if the GDP of two years before shows a decline; in this case, the readjustment would be based solely on inflation.
In this way, the need for negotiation between the government and Congress to determine the increase would be eliminated.
Although the exact value of the minimum wage in 2024 cannot be defined yet, due to factors that will be consolidated later, specialists already make estimates considering different indicators.
Value estimate
A calculation made by Tiago Sbardelotto, a specialist in public accounts at XP Investimentos, suggests that the minimum wage in 2024 could reach R$1,441.
This estimate takes into account a projected INPC of 6.1% for the year 2023, as well as GDP growth for 2022, which was 2.9%. It is important to highlight that any deviation from estimated inflation for this year may result in variations in the final value.
Other projections made by government technicians suggest that the minimum wage could reach R$ 1,429 next year, considering an estimate of 5.3% for current inflation.
The government's budget proposal for 2024 included a value of R$1,389 for the minimum wage. However, if the XP projection is adopted, an increase of R$ 46.7 billion in government spending is estimated.
The debate around the minimum wage continues as lawmakers weigh the financial implications and the need to provide better living conditions for the population.
