Scientists warn that the El Niño will have significant impacts in Brazil and could reach record levels. Due to the intensity it is reaching after so long, scholars are starting to call the phenomenon a “Super El Niño”.
Experts estimate that there is a 56% probability that this event will be more intense than the normal and 25% chance to reach gigantic proportions, surpassing the observed effects previously.
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These changes in the ocean affect atmospheric dynamics, influencing moisture transport and, consequently, the distribution of rainfall and temperatures.
In addition, interaction with regional and global climate systems can intensify or weaken the phenomenon. El Niño also impacts the Atlantic hurricane season and the Pacific cyclone season, increasing their number, intensity, and reach.
In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of cyclone records in Brazil, events that were very rare in the past.
Human influence and the evolution of El Niño
Scientists are unanimously in agreement: human influence plays a significant role in worsening El Niño-related events.
Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from burning fossil fuels, deforestation and irresponsible practices contribute to the increase in the average temperature of the planet, which can change the frequency and intensity of weather events extremes.
(Photo: Tiago Queiroz/Estadão)
El Niño can be potentiated by the effects of global warming, such as melting glaciers, rising sea level, ocean acidification and ozone layer depletion, which could have catastrophic.
This time, Brazil is among the countries that may be most affected by the consequences of El Niño due to its vast territorial extension and the diversity of ecosystems dependent on the conditions weather.
In addition, the country has an energy matrix based on hydroelectric plants, which can be impacted by changes in the rains. This has occurred in the past, resulting in severe droughts.
Understand El Niño better
The phenomena known as El Niño are notable changes in the distribution of surface water temperature in the Pacific Ocean, with significant impacts on climate.
These events occur at intervals of three to seven years, modifying the ocean temperature pattern known as the Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
For this reason, they are commonly referred to as ENOS events, which correspond to situations where the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average normal.
