As of August, due to the estimated increase in suppliers' prices, the forecast is that beer become more expensive in bars and restaurants, which has a significant impact on brewers such as Ambev and Heineken. For Ágora Investimentos, who will benefit the most from this scenario is Ambev.
According to reports, a very competitive and favorable environment, with Heineken facing capacity constraints in Petrópolis and working to recover its operation, in which it has supported the increases in beer prices in industry.
Likewise, the drop in commodity prices suggests that cost pressures are easing, which indicates that prospects for Ambev's margins have improved.
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On Wednesday, July 13th, Ambev's “role”, at around 2 pm, jumped to 6%, one very positive highlight on the Ibovespa (IBOV), mainly after JPMorgan raised it from “neutral” to “overweight”.
According to analysts, the demand for beer in Brazil in the second half should be sustained by a series of factors, such as the increase in income transfers to the population, the World Cup and the improvement in climate. For JPMorgan, this industry competition has started to become a secondary concern for the company's investment thesis. In the Brazilian market, AMBEV could gain market share, as Heineken is leading the price increase in the second quarter.
Bank of America (BofA) expects to see trends similar to the first quarter, with revenue growth but margin contraction.
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