Population aging: causes and consequences

The process of population-ageing it occurs naturally, but with different steps that take time. Aging is not so simple, it involves:

• improvement in quality of life;

• welfare;

• retirement;

• health plan, among others.

Such factors make the act of aging a social concern, permeating all sectors of public policy.

Read too: What are age pyramids?

Causes of population aging

The act of aging is natural, but for it to occur, some artificial factors are needed. It is also necessary to understand how some countries reach such high rates of elderly populations in their territories, something known as “transom demographic” in Population Geography.

This transition takes place in stages and depends on how the issue is assessed.

• First phase: at mortality and birth rates/fertility are high in almost the same proportion, the former being very common in the adult population. This phase was quite common when medicine was less evolved and we had poor sanitary conditions, with the rapid proliferation of diseases.

• Second level:

  mortality rates suffer a slight drop, but birth rates and fertility they are still on the rise, which increases the number of children and the survival of the young and adult population.

• Third phase: all rates (mortality, birth and fertility) decrease, and the adult population (consequently, the elderly) grows in the medium and long term. When there is the third phase, it means that better living conditions have been established: cities plans, basic sanitation, investments in health and education are some of the factors that lead to that phase.

• Fourth phase: it is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere of the planet, being experienced by countries that are pioneers in industrialization. This phase is a cause for concern, as it occurs when there is a small increase in the mortality rate compared to birth and fertility rates, even with the three rates falling. This makes population growth negative, something dangerous if we think of the young and adult population as part of the workforce. Economically Active Population (PEA), which sustains the countries.

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Main consequences of population aging

The elderly population needs more specific care. As we age, our bodies do not have the same energy as before, nor do our organs function as efficiently. With that, they are necessary health policies for this segment of the population.

Physical activity is an excellent way to live longer, healthier and more energetic.

Health managers should think about strategies and places suitable for the elderly population. Chronic diseases such as cardiovascular and diabetes, and/or disabilities that appear due to the age group must be treated in specialized environments.

In addition to health, there is the social security issue. Many countries adopt the retirement system for those who reach the status of elderly, which is something extremely important for people at this stage of life. However, retirement generates unavoidable expenses for the government with payments to pensioners and retirees, which worries government leaders.

In cities, the urban planning should also take into account this population range. Accessible streets and sidewalks, traffic lights with longer crossing times for pedestrians are some necessary urban solutions.

See too: Countries with high human development rates

Population aging in the world

For a long time, the aging process was something restricted and almost a privilege, given the conditions of subsistence. Since the first decades of the 20th century, with medical advances, urban planning, basic sanitation, better nutrition and the eradication of some diseases, the world population started to live longer, in every corner of the planet.

However, some countries have experienced a increasing the elderly population in a pioneering way, such as the countries of the Northern Hemisphere, in which the process of urbanization and improvement of cities took place in the 19th century.

As an example, we can mention life expectancy at birth, also known as Life expectancy, from some regions of the world. This concept is associated with how long a person can live from the year they were born. To arrive at a number, some questions are analyzed, such as:

• access to health;

• vaccination levels;

• infrastructure in the analyzed locations, among others.

Japan, Australia and New Zealand recorded, in 2000, a life expectancy at birth of over 76 years. On the other hand, in the African continent, such index was only 65 years old.

Currently, the higher indices of hope at birth are in developed countries, such as:

• South Korea (82.6 years);

• Canada (82.2 years);

• Hong Kong (84.7 years) – the largest in the world.

Group of elderly Chinese women in Shanghai. [1]

• Population aging in Europe

The European continent is one of the places on the globe where the fourth phase of demographic transition it happens. In recent years, the Europe has experienced a large increase in the adult and elderly population, as well as a slight decline in the percentage of youth and children.

Development, urbanization and good levels of education bring significant improvements in the quality of life, which makes the continent one of the regions of the planet where there are higher life expectancy rates at birth.

The infrastructure of cities contributes to the quality of life. In the photo, a group of elderly people in a square in Bucharest, Romania. [2]

Among the 10 countries with the best data, 5 are European. According to data from World Bank (World Bank), Switzerland (83.6 years old), Spain (83.3 years old), Italy (83.2 years old), Luxembourg (82.7 years old) and France (82.5 years old) have the best expectations of the continent, being among the 10 largest in the world.

The average life expectancy at birth across the continent is also high: 77.7 years in 2016, much higher than that of some African countries, such as Chad (53.7 years), Lesotho (52.9 years) and the Central African Republic (52.2 years), the smallest of the world.

However, this high European life expectancy brings some negative consequences, like:

• economic crises with pension spending;

• low replacement of the Economically Active Population (EAP);

• increase in chronic diseases in the population;

• state spending on public health.

Anyway, despite these points, when the population lives longer, it is a sign of social evolution in every way, something that should be celebrated and also planned.

Also access: Demographic growth and scarcity of natural resources

Population aging in Brazil

According to estimates by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), by 2060, 25% of the Brazilian population will be 60 years old or more, a percentage that will be greater than the population of children (just over 14% for the year mentioned). This data has been evolving in recent decades. In 2010, the date of the last IBGE census, the percentage of elderly people in the Brazilian population was 7.38. Ten years earlier, in 2000, the percentage was 5.85.

Compared to developed countries, we still have a long way to go in dealing with policies related to the elderly population as priorities. Based on the demographic transition, we can see that, currently, we are in the third phase, with significant reductions in mortality rates (people are living longer) and fertility/birth (low rates of children/woman and, consequently, low rates of births/thousand inhabitants).

Such reductions are consequences of several factors. First, we can mention the female emancipation in recent decades, such as the conquest of the right to vote, greater participation in the labor market, among others. These actions contributed to the decrease in the fertility rate. To prove it, see the evolution of the Brazilian fertility rate in recent decades:

Decade	fertility rate
1960	6,06
1970	4,97
1980	4,04
1990	2,9
2000	2,3
2010	1,87
2015	1,72

Thus, with the decrease in fertility rates, there is an increase in the young and adult population, corroborating the third phase of the demographic transition. Thus, population aging in Brazil is an inevitable factor, which must be seen with attention and caution by the State. Also according to the IBGE, life expectancy at birth for Brazilians in 2015 was 75.4 years, a slight increase compared to 2000, when life expectancy at birth was 69.8 years.

Another factor that explains the reduction in birth and fertility rates is the increased urban life. Survival in the stone jungle is expensive, which makes the population work 8 to 12 hours/day for a decent and satisfying livelihood. Some even have more than one job, something normal in medium and large cities.

Developed countries have already gone through this third phase, improving the living conditions of the elderly over the previous stages. However, in Brazil, what we see is the intense bad income distribution — aggravating the social differences —, retirement difficulties and many policies in which the elderly is not a priority.

Resolutions for population aging

As we have already seen, aging is increasingly common in every corner of the Earth. This process, which was once seen as painful for many, is now associated with progress and development. Countries that have a high number of elderly people have these two words in their public policy and throughout society.

However, despite being a common process around the world, not all nations are prepared for the increase in the elderly population. Health, economics and accessibility are among the most worrying issues regarding aging.

Prioritizing the final stage of life is an act worthy of those who value those who fought so hard for their country. Many actions to make old age a pleasure go through this appreciation. More accessible cities, efficient public health and respectable retirement values ​​are some of the countless examples that will make population aging both pleasurable and satisfying.

See too: What are the countries with a demographic deficit?

solved exercises

Question 1 - (UFRR/2017) According to the data collected by the Demographic Census, prepared by the Institute Brazilian of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Brazilian population totaled 190,755,799 inhabitants in 2010.

Regarding the phases of Brazilian demographic growth, we can say, EXCEPT:

A) Demographic projections indicate that in 2050 the Brazilian population will decline.

B) From the 1990s onwards, there has been a lower growth and greater aging of the population.

C) Between 1940 and 1980 there was a greater growth of the population, due to the high birth rate and low mortality rate.

D) Between 1900 and 1940, the growth of the Brazilian population was due to the drop in the mortality rate, due to improvements in the country's sanitary conditions.

E) Between 1872 and 1940 there was a slow growth, due to the high mortality rates.

Resolution

Alternative D. The exercise asks for the wrong alternative to demography Brazilian. In this case, population growth grows after the aforementioned period, when the urbanization process peaks after 1930, a period of intense industrialization.

Question 2 - (UFPR/2017)

Brazil has 206.08 million inhabitants, according to data released this Tuesday (30) [August, 2016] by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Estimates published in the Official Gazette of the Union indicate that the country had, on 1 July this year, 206,081,432 inhabitants. Last year, the population was 204,450,649, that is, the population growth was 0.8%.

(Available in:. Accessed on 08.31.2016.)

Based on the information in the text and the population's knowledge of geography, tick the correct alternative.

A) The percentage of population growth indicated shows that the Malthusian theory was right, that is, that the population is growing in geometric progression and that of food, in an arithmetic rhythm.

B) The birth rate has dropped significantly in the last two decades and the current rate of growth is explained by the arrival of migrants and refugees from other countries.

C) In absolute terms, the significant difference in the amount of population between one year and another indicates that the Public birth control policies of the last decade failed to slow growth populational.

D) The increase in demographic density in the North and Center-West regions, which balanced the distribution of the national population, has been a relevant factor in population growth.

E) Although it presents this growth rate, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the representation of the young population in Brazil in relation to the population in the process of

aging, confirming the change in the Brazilian age structure.

Resolution

Alternative E. With birth and fertility rates being reduced, the participation of children and young people in the composition of the Brazilian population will be lower than that of adults and the elderly in the coming decades.

Image credit

[1]Gwoei / Shutterstock

[2] ldphotoro / Shutterstock

By Attila Matthias
Geography teacher