O demographic deficit is a term used in population studies to characterize those territories or regions that have a vegetative growth negative, that is, they have mortality rates higher than birth rates, so that this value is not offset by the balance migratory. This means, in simpler terms, that a certain location is literally losing inhabitants. This situation is present in some countries and may be a greater trend for humanity in the coming years.
the case of russia
Russia's demographic deficit is one of the most commonly used examples to illustrate the issue of countries losing population. In the Russian case, this occurrence is directly associated with the political and economic transformations the country has undergone since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
In the decade in question, in addition to the deep economic crisis that the country went through, a period of many uncertainties was experienced due to the political transition to openness to capitalism and the market economy, with the decline of the development model based on an economy planned. As a result, Russia followed a historical trend of decreasing birth rates, which was aggravated by the low life expectancy among men, which did not exceed 63 years in 2010, while, among women, the expectation was of 75 years old.
In the 1990s, the Russian population was around 148 million inhabitants. Currently, this figure has dropped to 143 million, and the trend, according to official estimates, is that the population decrease by 30 million by the 2050s, unless the country starts to adopt a Christmas policy with greater rigor.
the Japanese case
Japan is one of the countries with low population growth and is facing the imminence of an intensive deficit for the coming years. In 2005, the number of inhabitants increased by only 280 thousand people, the lowest value recorded in the entire post-war period. The country has been looking for measures to contain this trend in order to reduce expectations of future economic recession as a result of this scenario.
This reality is linked to the perspective of demographic transition, which follows the following sequence:
1) high mortality and birthrate with low vegetative growth;
2) drop in mortality and abrupt rise in population growth;
3) deceleration in growth due to falling birth rates;
4) Demographic stabilization due to the relative balance between mortality and birth.
In the Japanese case, the demographic transition has been completed and is in the fourth phase. However, even with one of the highest life expectancies in the world (low mortality), rates of birth rates are low enough to cause a drop in the number of inhabitants, according to the data above cited. Even so, the geographic difficulties of the country (few places available for housing) mean that there are large agglomerations Humanities, with emphasis on the Tokyo Megalopolis, which involves a large group of municipalities that cover more than 30 million people.
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Other countries with negative population growth
In addition to the two cases mentioned above, there are several other countries with negative population growth or with a very low positive rate, in which the perspective is of a decrease in the population in the future. next. Among them, we can highlight Moldova (0.90%), Georgia (-0.79%), Ukraine (-0.76%), Bulgaria (-0.72), Croatia (-0.09), Germany (0.07), Italy (0.13) and Portugal (0.37) - United Nations data referring to the end of the decade of 2000.
The effects of demographic deficit
The question of the demographic deficit has profound effects on the economic and even cultural composition of a country. The first major impact is the reduction of the Economically Active Population (EAP), which involves the employed population or those looking for a job, generally covering an age group between 16 and 65 years. As a result, the economy is going through a slowdown in its growth and a decrease in its productivity.
A second impact of the demographic deficit is the immediate population-ageing, although this only happens in those countries where life expectancy is high. Thus, the low birth rates and the large number of elderly people mean that there is a very low proportion between adults and young people for the number of older people.
To avoid or contain this problem, some European countries, such as Portugal, France and Germany, have been adopting measures to boost growth vegetative, including the payment of salaries for those couples who wish to have a third child, which, at least for the time being, has not generated the effects desired.
A third effect of the demographic deficit is the gradual change in the ethnic composition of the population, which happens when there is a certain amount of migration, as is the case in Europe itself. In other words, the number of foreigners residing in the country increases and the number of people in the country decreases. own continent that reproduce, which causes a gradual change in the cultural and personal traits of the population in general.
Brazil is not free from the population deficit problem. According to IBGE data, the growth rate of the Brazilian population has also been gradually decreasing, following the trend of demographic transition. The perspective, based on projections by the IBGE itself, is that the Brazilian population will grow by the year 2042, when the from then on, it will start to decline, which will depend, of course, on the government measures adopted to combat this trend until there.
By Me. Rodolfo Alves Pena
